The National Investment Center, in a webinar now available on-demand, provides a 20 year look-back and 25-year look-ahead on demand, occupancy and growth for seniors housing. (Note: NIC’s definition of ‘seniors housing’ is not inclusive of affordable housing for seniors or stand-alone nursing homes.)

Arick Morton, CEO of the NIC MAP Vison project, during the live event began by discussing widely-experienced stability and downward trends that were seen just before and during the COVID pandemic years. However, since roughly Q2 of 2022, Mr. Morton argues that population growth trends, occupancy and rising absorption rates demonstrate that the demand for seniors housing will soon greatly outpace current inventory leading to a potential 300,000 unit shortfall in coming years.

The field is expected to reach a median stable occupancy (90% or more) by 2026 – a very promising prediction for the immediate term. He discusses the “rapid rebound” of seniors housing penetration and absorption within the five quarters of full vaccine roll-out, owing to the ‘durability and elasticity of demand’ of the field.

Just to maintain 90% (stabilized) occupancy, Mr. Morton claims sector inventory must increase by 2x the historic growth rate, and 3.5-4 x our current pace of growth. Partially driving growing penetration and absorption rates, Mr. Morton notes, is shrinking family size and thus fewer adult family caregivers to house and care for their aging parents.

Additionally, the NIC MAP data show that the burgeoning consumer base for seniors housing is increasingly wealthier than prior generations.

Towards the webinar’s end, Mr. Morton offers numerous  recommendations for organizations’ strategic planning for growth, and gives faux case study examples that walk through growth projections and strategy for key regional markets in the U.S.