Research organization KFF in a July 23 brief developed using updated Congressional Budget Office scoring of the budget impact of H.R. 1, the 2025 budget reconciliation bill (Public Law 119-21), estimates state-level reductions in federal Medicaid spending.

The estimates include allocation of provisional interactions, which account for how policies would reduce spending in multiple areas and offset double counting for policies that would result in the same outcome. KFF attributes $911 billion in federal Medicaid cuts through 2034.

The analysis found that cuts applicable only to states that have undertaken Medicaid Expansion under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) account for more than half of the cuts- totaling $526 billion. Federal funding reductions in the first five years of the budget window account for less than one quarter (24%) of the total cuts since many provisions are not effective until years out. The full $911 billion represents a 14% reduction in federal Medicaid spending over the 10-year period.

States, including Louisiana, Illinois, Nevada, and Oregon, see cuts approaching 20% of their federal Medicaid funding, while all states will face significant percentage reductions in federal Medicaid spending. The analysis displays data in multiple easy-to-consume charts and images. A state-by-state map illustrates how individual states are anticipated to fare.

Review the brief here.