The Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the nonpartisan office that produces independent analyses and cost estimates of budgetary and economic issues to support the Congressional budget process, released a July 2024 report on the relationship between immigration and federal revenue. The report projected that a rise in immigration from 2021 to 2026 should enhance federal revenues, mandatory spending, and interest on the debt in the CBO’s baseline estimates. This increase is expected to reduce deficits by a net amount of $0.9 trillion over the 2024–2034 period.

The report only examines the surge’s impact on federal revenues, mandatory spending, and interest on the debt in detail. It is important to note, this report examines the additional impact of the recent immigration surge, not the effects of all individuals who immigrated during those years or those who had previously immigrated and were already living in the United States.

Additionally, while it offers a broad assessment of potential effects on federal discretionary funding, it does not include estimates of the surge’s impact on state and local budgets. The report acknowledges that CBO’s estimates of the immigration surge’s impact on the federal budget and the economy are highly uncertain. The agency will keep assessing new data and information as they become available.