The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ (CMS) Office of the Actuary released projections of National Health Expenditures (NHE) and health insurance enrollment for 2022-2031 on June 14. CMS projects NHEs will be $7.2 trillion, compared to $4.7 trillion in 2023. By 2031, NHEs will equal 19.6% of our Gross Domesitc Product, compared to 17.6% in 2023, CMS predicts.

The report contains expected impacts from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), including that people with Medicare prescription drug coverage (Part D) are projected to experience lower out-of-pocket spending on prescription drugs for 2024 and beyond as several provisions from the law begin to take effect. However, due to the expiration of the Medicaid continuous enrollment provision and the resumption of Medicaid redeterminations, Medicaid enrollment is projected to fall over the next three years, most notably in 2024, with an expected net loss in enrollment of 8 million beneficiaries. 

Medicare spending is projected to grow the fastest of all the major health care payers by 2031 to an average of 7.5 percent annually, as the last of the baby boomer generation age into the program through 2029.  More detailed spending projections for nursing facilities, life plan communities, home health, and other services, can be found in the data published in the Journal of Health Affairs here or on CMS’s website here.