Popular industry publications have highlighted the disagreement among key executives’ outlooks on senior housing development. A recent article in Senior Housing News titled “Why a ‘Dumb Money’ Influx Has Senior Housing Execs Jittery” speculates that owners and operators are worried about rogue developers with no experience in the business coming in.
Conversely, Senior Housing Business published conclusions from an expert panel at the Assisted Living Federation of America 2015 Senior Living Executive Conference in Tampa, FL, which emphasized the intelligence of lenders/investors and poked holes in the notion that the industry may be on the brink of a bubble.
We sat down with one of our seasoned experts, Jeffery Sands (JS), to gain HJ Sims’ perspective on the news and its potential implications for the sector.
Q: How is Sims involved in development right now?
JS: On the nonprofit side, we are providing both tax-exempt bonds and bank financing to fund new developments. Our for-profit team has been focused primarily on creating flexible subordinate debt and/or preferred equity structures. Thus, we are seeing development from both a senior and subordinate lender and equity point of view.
Q: In your opinion, what is the reason behind the extremely active development we are seeing?
JS: We see 2 reasons. The industry went through a period of time from 2008 to 2012 when there was very little construction activity. This created a shortfall in supply, which is evident by relatively low penetration rates and high occupancies in many markets. Also, we are seeing very high valuations in acquisitions, so it makes more sense to build rather than to buy to expand.
Q: Do you think ‘dumb money’ is playing a part in the development boom?
JS: No, we think that, for the most part, those providing construction financing are not just throwing money at deals. Wall Street and foreign banks, which had much to do with the “bubbles” we saw in the early and mid-2000’s, are not players this time around.
The major sources of construction financing are domestic banks and REITs. The domestic banks are subject to new banking rules that restrict their ability to make speculative or high leverage loans. REITs have been very selective in the development deals they have funded. Further, most lenders are requiring recourse, or personal guarantees, which can take the underfunded developers out of play.
Perhaps there will be some ‘dumb money’, but, on balance, lenders and investors are smarter than ever, and these strict underwriting standards will continue to prevent a bubble in the near term.
Q: If you are not worried about ‘dumb money’, what does keep you up at night?
JS: Our main worry is whether the industry will have access to enough manpower or experienced employees to meet the increasing demand. The challenge is in obtaining both the executive and departmental level talent to run operations.
This labor force includes not only executive directors and marketers, but also, and very importantly, housekeepers, caregivers, food service providers, etc. On the professional level, the challenge for the industry will be to continue to spark interest in the field among young people, create training programs and enhance the employee experience.
When it comes to less skilled employees, the industry shares many of the same issues plaguing other service industries such as increases in minimum wage, new insurance mandates, immigration reform, and accessibility.
This article was reprinted with permission from HJ Sims.
