Volume One: Air Date 11.15.21. “So Long, Herd Immunity”

Our new “mandate minute” will feature short highlights on news and trends related to the vaccine mandates around the country.

Today, we feature an article from LA Times on how the CDC is moving away from setting goals to reach herd immunity. In short – we’re not aiming for a specific herd immunity % anymore. Now, the focus is keeping new infections and deaths at consistent lows through vaccination efforts.

Yes, the goals for herd immunity have ranged from 70-85 % of our population. Right now, only 72.1 % of Americans are fully vaccinated, so these mandates are certainly needed to help boost immunization numbers. However, because of the complexity of both how humans – who are not as homogenous or colocalized as the farm animals that this concept is based on – live and how the coronavirus has evolved in ways that have surprised scientists and epidemiologists alike, the herd immunity concept really no longer works. Why? Vaccines are quite effective at preventing severe illness and death; rather, it’s because either vaccination or natural immunity do not offer long-term protection, and the COVID variants have proven the virus can evolve and transmit with speed and efficiency. “Even if vaccination were universal, the coronavirus would probably continue to spread.”

So, CDC has set aside reaching any herd immunity number as a goal, and instead is emphasizing keeping new infections and deaths at a minimum through public health efforts and vaccinations.

Volume Two: Air Date 11.17.21. “Better Than Predicted”

One of the greatest concerns with the impending federal vaccine mandates is the exacerbation of an already difficult staffing situation. A recent Kaiser Family Foundation survey across industries found 37% of unvaccinated workers say they will quit their jobs if forced to either get vaccinated or take weekly Covid tests. And if their employer mandates vaccines and doesn’t offer the testing option, 72% of the unvaccinated workers say they will quit. If the surveyed unvaccinated workers follow through on their threats to quit, it would lead to somewhere between 5% to 9% of workers leaving their jobs, depending upon what rules they face.

The question remains to what degree those workers will actually choose to lose their jobs and that will likely vary from person to person and place to place. Several major employers, including United Airlines and Tyson Foods, that have imposed vaccine mandates report nearly all their workers have complied with the rules. Tyson Foods, in particular, has settings across the country including in rural areas.

The experience of hospital-based healthcare systems that earlier implemented mandates have seen that 1-5% of their workforce has resigned or been let go related to their vaccine mandates.

So far, this seems to hold broadly. Med Center Health and St Claire Regional Medical Center, both in Kentucky lost 5% and 1% of their workforces, respectively. South Carolina-based Tidelands Health had only one employee out of 2,010 who did not comply with its mandate and chose to resign. Data for health systems with early mandates are found in this link.